Running backs in the NFL Draft are often a devalued position, especially with the current state of offensive football in the NFL. Teams are often more likely to wait until day 3 to get a running back, as they don’t necessarily want to spend the capital in the draft on a devalued position.
However, there have been some pretty clear exceptions to this rule. Over the last 5 years, 9 running backs have been selected in the first round:
2023: Bijan Robinson was selected 8th overall by Atlanta, Jahmyr Gibbs was selected 12th overall by Detroit.
2021: Najee Harris was selected 24th by Pittsburgh, Travis Etienne was selected 25th by Jacksonville.
2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire was selected 32nd by Kansas City.
2019: Josh Jacobs was selected 24th by Las Vegas.
2018: Saquon Barkley was selected 2nd by the New York Giants, Rashaad Penny was selected 27th by Seattle, Sony Michel was selected 31st by New England.
Teams will often make exceptions on antiquated rules such as “no running backs in round 1” if you are an exceptional talent or can provide value at your position that others can’t. Enter Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State running back who has taken the college football world by storm with his excellent season (and who should have won the heisman, according to this analyst’s ballot.)
As of this article being written (12-18), Ashton Jeanty’s stat line reads like a video game: 344 carries, 2,497 yards, 29 touchdowns, on the ground, plus 20 catches for 116 yards and 1 touchdown in the air. He has been the best running back in college football, and should go high in the 2025 NFL Draft. But the real question we dive into today; how high will Ashton go in the NFL Draft?
We’ll use tankathon’s current NFL Draft order for today’s exercise, which as of 12-18, has the following top 10:
1 – Las Vegas Raiders
2 – New York Giants
3 – New England Patriots
4 – Jacksonville Jaguars
5 – Carolina Panthers
6 – Tennessee Titans
7 – Cleveland Browns
8 – New York Jets
9 – Chicago Bears
10 – New Orleans Saints
Of these 10 teams, we can effectively rule out teams 1 & 2, as they will be in ned of a quarterback, and as good as Ashton Jeanty is, he can’t impact a game the way a quarterback can. We can also rule out teams 3/4/5/6, all for differing reasons:
- New England has a much larger need at offensive tackle, wide receiver and edge rusher, all of which will be higher on the Pats’ big board rather than Jeanty.
- Jacksonville has Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, both of which are signed until 2026 and 2027. If Jacksonville wants to look at RB, it’s likely on Day 3.
- Carolina just recently signed Chuba Hubbard to a long-term extension, as well as Jonathan Brooks, despite his recent ACL injury, is still on this roster. Plus I expect the Panthers to attack the defensive side of the ball early in their draft.
- Tennessee has a need at QB, but with the top 2 options gone, there isn’t another qb that would be worthy of a pick this high (and I fully expect them to be aggressive for Sam Darnold in FA.) They have a much bigger need at WR and CB, so I expect Tennessee to look at RB on day 3 as well, if at all.
We can also rule out teams 8 and 10, as both teams also have existing starters in place, as well as have much larger needs elsewhere that Jeanty alone can’t fix.
So that gives us two teams in the top 10 currently who could be in the market for Jeanty’s services: Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears. Let’s dive into each one, and I’ll add a sneaky third team at the end.
Cleveland Browns (7th overall)
For the Browns, their biggest needs is offensive talent overall, including the QB position. However, this class has 2 QBs as first round talent (Cam Ward/Shedeur Sanders) and that’s in, in my eyes. Rather than reach for a QB, this Browns squad needs to build an infrastructure around the QB, and get a bridge guy to 2026, when the class is looking to be much stronger.
The conversation piece here is do the Browns go with Jeanty, the top WR in the class (which I have as Luther Burden from Missouri), or the top OT in this class? Consider that my top OL prospect is a top 20 talent who likely plays guard at the next level (Will Campbell, LSU), we can also rule out that position.
The decision for Andrew Berry and company is is Ashton Jeanty and a WR in rounds 2 or 3 better than Luther Burden and a RB later? I would take the former, as pairing Ashton Jeanty with Nick Chubb (if he is able to rehab and return to the browns) would be an elite level running game, despite the issues with the offensive line (which a very good RB like Jeanty can help alleviate as well.) I think there’s a 50% chance of this pick happening here for Jeanty.
Chicago Bears (9th overall)
You can copy and paste the need of offensive linemen from Cleveland to Chicago, but shockingly, the Bears offensive linemen might be worse, if that’s believable. So why would the Bears entertain taking a RB in the top 10 when offensive line is such a need?
Well, the answer is simple, yet complex. To start, the offensive linemen in this class aren’t worthy of a top 10 selection, regardless of whether you need a tackle or a guard.
In addition, the Bears likely will have a new playcaller and head coach, and we don’t know how they may or may not value the running back position. My choice for the new HC for the Chicago Bears (which you can read more about my predictions on HC/GMs here) is Ben Johnson, the Detroit Lions OC…who also spent a top 12 pick on a running back in Gibbs.
Ultimately I think that Jeanty should be on the board for Poles, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Chicago next season. However, with other more pressing needs, Chicago may come back around in rounds 2/3 for a running back, so I peg this happening at around 40%.
Cincinnati Bengals (13th overall)
Now we get to the dark horse. Bengals fans may be screaming at me from all reaches of Cincinnati for this selection, but give it a chance.
What’s the easiest way to open up defenses from locking in on star players? Keeping them honest and forcing them to respect the run. Adding Jeanty will force defenses to either load the box to stop him, leaving single coverage for guys like JaMarr and Tee, or doubling up on coverages for those guys, leaving lighter boxes for Jeanty to tear apart.
RB isn’t the biggest need for the Bengals, defensive line (and defense as a whole) is their biggest need by far. But this class is deep enough on defense to be able to come back in rounds 2/3/4 and load up on defense, so if this offense wanted to select Jeanty in round 1, and have a Sonic/Knuckles like running back room with Jeanty/Chase Brown, you’d get no arguments from me. However, I think this has a 10% chance of happening in my eyes.
Ultimately, Jeanty is the second best prospect in this class on my board (behind Travis Hunter from Colorado) but because of the position he plays, there’s a high likelihood of him falling into the 10-15 range. I think his absolute floor would be the late teens, and gone by pick 20, either by the team picking there, or via a trade up.
The running back position may be devalued in the NFL, but star talent will always have a place in the league, regardless of the position that they play.
As always, if you like or hate this take, feel free to reach out to me on “X” @sparkscouting or @draftdetectives, and I’d be more than willing to have a debate or discuss why or why not you think I’m wrong!
