If you asked the majority of the football fandom a year ago, Bill Belichick coaching North Carolina would not be on the radar.
Belichick has found ultra success at the NFL level. His resume could take up the entire page and is well known as possibly the best coaching resume of all time. 6x Super Bowl Champion, with another two rings as a defensive coordinator and just a baker’s dozen behind Don Shula for most wins of all time. That alone is enough to take his presence and feel pretty good about having him run your football team.
With that being said, there is a lot of contexts as to what Belichick can look around to that helped him with that success, and regardless of responsibility, can the success be repeated at the collegiate level? On paper, it seems like a walk in the park, but although I am a major fan of both the New England Patriots and North Carolina Tar Heels, I am here to push back just a little on this euphoria.
Bill Belichick’s Legacy
Let me start here by acknowledging Bill is far and away the best defensive mind to ever grace football. His ungodly ability to develop talent, scheme up plans against the league’s best, and emphasize the idea of everyone doing their 1/11th is unmatched. He has proven a style of old school football run by clock management and smart play can go a long way.
Now… with all that being said, there is a point in which we need to also acknowledge how beneficial he had been. Although he was a factor in getting unbelievable rosters stacked with Wilfork, Harrison, Bruschi, Vrabel, Law, Willie and many more pro-bowl talents, it also helped to have the all-time greatest in Brady. Yes, Bill drafted and acknowledged what he had in 2001, but the fact of the matter is he was a lottery ticket, and a cheap option compared to Bledsoe. The Patriots prior to Brady under Bill’s control were 5-13 before and 29-39 after departing. Let me be clear yet again, this is not a knock-on Bill as a coach, but more of a point that no matter how good of a coach you are, without elite talent and a little luck at the QB position, you are very limited.
Bill within his early years of being a GM could sniff out talent left and right, especially on defense. Up until just a decade ago he was finding drafts with Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Chandler Jones and Devin McCourty. He was able to identify talent coming in and make financial decisions while keeping the team intact. Unfortunately, just like all the greats whether playing or coaching, father time can come into play.
In the last 10 years of his coaching tenure the Patriots ranked 31st in Pro Bowlers selected across the league. Due to winning, and help from Tom Brady, it was hard to see the hindsight that maybe his coaching and QB play helped his GM skills survive. Often times it was “chess not checkers” and “next man up” when in reality it was, I will coach guys to be above average, rest on my first ten years of talent evaluation, and rely heavily on the QB to fix the offensive mistakes. Hindsight may be 20/20, and Belichick played a massive part in the 20-year success, but a plethora of decisions within the post first dynasty era alone that seem to be brushed over due to still having success can be listed, and Brady covered up most of them.
- 2006- Team is left with minimal WR help after getting rid of Branch and fall short in the AFCCG to Manning. Brady drags them to the final 4
- 2009- Post getting rid of Richard Seymour for money, the solution became other free agents, who Bill said himself he could not get to play hard, giving the post ACL tear for Brady no chance.
- 2011- They had the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL after Samuel left and they saw Devin McCourty was more of a safety, and despite all of that, went to the Superbowl anyway.
- 2013- Welker was supposed to be replaced by Amendola, and it did not pan out. This left Brady dragging Thompkins, Dobson, and at once QB/PR Edelman to the AFCCG vs Manning with Thomas, Decker, and former Patriot Welker.
- 2017- Allowed 41 points in SB52 vs Nick Foles simply because of a Butler off the field situation that still nobody knows about to this day. He makes up for it in 2018, but not without a shootout, Dee Ford and coin toss that saves them in KC.
The fact of the matter is that it would be silly to say the Patriots should have won more than they did, but in all reality, they had a 10 year stretch where they did not maximize their assets, but because they had sustained the top of the league, it went unnoticed. They have yet to find WR talent in early parts of the draft to this day, they reached constantly on trench talent like Easley, Brown, and Strange, and up until Gonzalez, had not had a legit first round pick since possibly Solder.
Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Impact
Yet again, the article may come across as a Bill bashing, so I want to be very clear how great of a COACH he is. He will get the absolute best out of 90% of players. He wrings out just about every last drop of potential for most players and I am confident the Saturday operation will be cleaner and less frustrating for all UNC fans. He has a plethora of positives for the school, and I want to address those before the concerns.
Positives
- Bill is an instant connection to the NFL. He has people he knows, 3-4 teams he used to coach for, GM’s and assistants across the platform, so for college players, this is an attraction big time.
- NIL will bump simply based upon name. Mac Brown was one thing, but arguably the best and most accomplished coach ever will set the bar ungodly high. This will hopefully allow for more highly rated recruits to get what they deserve.
- UNC has had a serious defensive issue, especially in the secondary and tackling, since I can remember. This on a sideline/football scale, should be an instant fix for the program.
Barring things going haywire, I feel those three points will stand until Bill decides to hand it up. At the end of the day, regardless of generation, there will still always be the love for hierarchy and respect for Belichick. He is going to attract better trenches, the lunch-pail style players, and guys who model their game after an Edelman, Andrews, etc. knowing Bill sees something in them other schools do not.
With that being said, unsurprising after reading the opener, I have more concern than I do positivity.
Negatives/Concerns
- Starting with the basics, Bill Belichick is approaching 80 years old by the end of this contract. For a team with a 6-6 record, who not only lost Drake Maye (coincidentally to the Post-Belichick Patriots), but is now losing their best player in Hampton this year, it seems like a very uphill battle for the rebuild. The best scenario, and it seems farfetched, is the coach having a similar impact to Deion Sanders, where he gets a massive load of recruits there for his name. The reason I feel that may be out too is simply because he is not achieving Travis Hunter and his two children to go along with him to Chapel Hill. Prime was able to get Colorado ranked in two years, and even if Bill does the same in the harder ACC, by that point is he already on his way to hanging it up?
- The new NIL set up should be an improvement for his NFL stylistic mind, assuming he will want to pay. He went to war on contracts with guys like Gronk, Brady, Revis, and Wilfork, so I doubt he will be super willing to hand over millions of dollars to unproven 18-year-old high school kids.
- At the end of the day, it is a different generation. Kids like a player coach, want to be pampered and want a bag of money. Belichick has not only coached that way but never ran a team that way. It will be a massive adaptation.
- The X’s and O’s are less concerning for sure. Bill usually adapts to the time, but we are seeing a sense of culture built on power offense and stopping the run coming into the college world where it is all about speed option, spreading guys out and slinging for 400 yards. May take a year or two to transfer that.
- The transfer portal is a whole different beast. Bill agreed with Saban on hating it and evidentially that is what pushed older, and more dictatorship approached coaches out of the college game. Not only is Bill going to have to do more in the portal than he ever did in free agency, but he is going to have to convince kids to stay at UNC without getting too much playing time. Not his best skill in his time with the Patriots.
This all comes from a good place, as nobody wants to see the Pats/Heels connection work more. I do feel in logistics they will improve because they will be well coached, fix up the defense and provide a sense of power they have never seen before. My worry is more that they will not get as good, as fast, as other people may believe, and by the time they are ready to take it to that level, Bill will be on his way out the door, and he will be hanging the reigns over to his son. Steven and Brian Belichick, Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, these are not guys I trust to keep a relationship with success going. It is safe to say the skeptical nature of the 2025 Tar Heels remains, just for far different reasons.
Prediction
In general, for the 2025 North Carolina unit, it cannot go much worse. Just based upon coaching alone, this should become a team that gets back to an over .500 record and finds themselves in a bowl game. The long-term plan should be to become ranked by 2026, and hope Bill sticks around to try and get an ACC title by 3 years later. I do feel the aura of Bill the GM may be a little overhyped, especially at this age and factoring in all the past/current concerns, but there is no doubt a change needed to be made at Chapel Hill. Let’s just hope going from oldest coach to oldest coach in D1 was the right choice, and a culture is built far past Belichick’s tenure.
