OVERVIEW
When the Patriots are mentioned around the NFL media and fanbases, a lot of people have distant memories of an unstoppable dynasty which lasted 2 decades with the best QB/HC combination ever. Sadly, that is not the same Patriots we see today.
The New England we have seen is a team that has not won the Super Bowl since 2018, been real contenders since 2019, have yet to make the playoffs/have a winning record since 202, and follows 8-26 over the last 2 seasons. The team has gotten to an instability we have not expected from the Kraft ownership, where they enter their 3rd HC and 5th OC over the last 5 years.
With the new Hires of Vrabel at Head Coach, Mcdaniels at Offensive Coordinator, and Williams at Defensive Coordinator, the Patriots have addressed their staff for the 2025 season and hopefully years to come. Vrabel gives everything the Pats wanted with Mayo, just with more experience and a more hard-nosed style, but it does not fix their desperate need of talent and holes on the roster.
Below, I give my take on the best scenario as to what the Patriots can REALISTICALLY do for their upcoming offseason, where they have the most money in the league at well over 100 million, minimal impact free agents, and 4 top 100 picks with #4 overall. The Patriots can use this offseason as although not a championship team, the foundation for that going forward.
RESIGN PERIOD: THEIR OWN GUYS TO ACCESS
Let Go:
- Jacoby Brissett, QB
- Chukwuma Okorafor, OT
- JaMycal Hasty, RB
- Jaylinn Hawkins, S
- Joey Slye, K
- Oshane Ximenes, OLB
- Lester Cotton, OG (RFA)
- Ben Brown, C (ERFA)
- JaQuae Jackson, WR (ERFA)
- Demontrey Jacobs, OT (ERFA)
None of the players listened here will be returning in this simulation. Nobody here really is an impact player and with Vrabel taking over I do not think any place is restricted for culture guys. Slye is replaceable in accuracy for Kickers, Brissett has done his job for Maye’s development, and the rest do not play more than 25% of the snaps for the team when fully healthy.
Resign:
- Jonathan Jones, CB (1 yr, 6.5M, 4M guaranteed)
- Deatrich Wise, DE (1 yr, 8.5M, 6.5M guaranteed)
- Austin Hooper, TE (1 yr, 4M, 2.5M guaranteed)
- Daniel Ekuale, DT (1 yr, 1.2M, 250K guaranteed)
- Christian Ellis, LB (RFA) (1 yr, 1.1M, 0 guaranteed)
- Alex Austin, CB (ERFA) (1 yr, 1M, 0 guaranteed)
- Jeremiah Pharms, DT (ERFA) (1 yr, 1M, 0 guaranteed)
These guys are Patriots through the years, and guys with at least 1 year left with impact. In certain instances, they will take a major backseat as to what their role was on this limited talent team, but they will provide depth and value nonetheless for a cheaper price. Jones, Wise, and Hooper will give great secondary options for their position groups for a combined 19 M.
CUTS AND RESTRUCTURES:
Cuts:
- Kendrick Bourne, WR (Saves 6.5M with 2.5M dead cap for next year)
- Vedarian Lowe, OT (Saves 3M with 0 dead cap for next year)
Not much to cut considering they have minimal large contracts, and minimal big talent deals in the system. Bourne and Lowe will go since they are being replaced, and it saves half the money they spent resigning guys from their own roster.
Restructures/Extensions:
- Mike Onwenu, OG, converted to base signing bonus (Saves 10M in 2025)
- Hunter Henry, TE, extended an additional 2 years at 24.5M with 14.5 guaranteed (Saves 3M in 2025)
Again, minimal guys worth restructuring but Onwenu is the only guy over 20M against the cap, so it will be easiest to show him the money up front and save for free agency. Henry has earned his stripes and gains an extra full year guaranteed.
FREE AGENCY: LEAGUE WIDE SIGNINGS
Assuming Tee Higgins is headed back to Cincinatti based on reports that Burrow will be upset if they let him go, the Patriots will have to pivot and find themselves a plethora of new help.
Signings:
- Cam Robinson, OT (2 yrs, 36.5M, 26M guaranteed)
- Chase Young, DE (2 yrs, 27M, 22M guaranteed)
- Demarcus Robinson, WR (3 yrs, 31M, 19.5M guaranteed)
- Will Hernandez, OG (2 yrs, 21M, 14M guaranteed)
- Stephon Gilmore, CB (1 yr, 14.5M, 13M guaranteed)
- Khyzir White, LB (1 yr 8M, 7.5M guaranteed)
- Javon Kinlaw, DT (1 yr, 7.5M, 6M guaranteed)
- Eddy Piniero, K (1 yr, 4M, 4M guaranteed)
- Nick Mullens, QB (1 yr, 4M, 1.5M guaranteed)
- Jason Pinnock, FS (1 yr, 2.5M, 1M guaranteed)
Tried keeping this as realistic as I possibly could. The Patriots are going to have to overpay for talent until they get a proven culture, QB, and HC, so these guys are going to get some larger guarantees.
Cam Robinson should step in from Minnesota who will move on with Darrisaw healthy and be their starting LT Day 1. They need one, it is not long term to crush them down the road, and they get their upper half of the league guy.
Young is the EDGE threat they need and the younger Judon replacement. Although disappointing for pick 2, he provides value and getting multiple years with over 20M guaranteed should get him to commit.
Demarcus Robinson has shown great things for LA and while they try figuring out their Kupp and Stafford situation, get their scraps and turn him into a serious WR2 for this team.
Hernandez and Gilmore are both Band-Aids. They want to fix the culture in NE and Vrabel brings in two vets for his program that fit the schemes and show good presence for winning or losing teams.
Depth in White and Kinlaw will take place of some of the weaker rotational players the Patriots have had in the last few seasons. They can give starting potential if put into the right spots at the right times.
Piniero is the new K in NE for a cheaper deal who is slightly more accurate with a slightly worse leg than Slye.
Mullens and Pinnock are backups, but quality guys who won’t kill you in must need spots for a few plays at a time. Better than what they have for those two positions.
BLOCKBUSTER TRADE: Day 2 Pick for Stud WR
Seahawks Acquire: Patriots 2025 2nd (38), 2025 7th (218) and 2026 5th
Patriots Acquire: DK Metcalf
The situation for finding a WR1 comes to an end. DK wants an extension, and the Patriots sit with 40M to hand out still. This is the final step in the plan to fill the WR and OT needs they have had for almost half a decade.
DRAFT: Pick 4 changes after Robinson signing and Metcalf trade
- 4: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
- 69: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
- 77: Ajani Cornelius, OT, Oregon
- 104: Davison Igbinosun, CB, Ohio State
- 144: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami
- 221: Antwane Wells Jr, WR, Ole Miss
- 239: Jack Kiser, LB, Notre Dame
For the sake of this, I avoided the multiple draft day trades with moving pieces to sure up any more complex thoughts. I do think Carter is the best player on the board with the Pats suring up their LT and WR1. Johnson is a difference maker and with Stevenson’s fumbling issues its time to address a cheaper option. Ajani gives great view to Wallace as 2 lottery tickets to lock up the RT slot. Davison comes in to develop while Gilmore is here on a rental deal. Arroyo does the same for the TE2 slot with Bell not showing much to insure Hooper. The two 7ths will make the roster for this sim just to give new faces.
FINAL ROSTER AFTER CAMP CUTS:
OFFENSE:
- QB: Drake Maye, Nick Mullens, Joe Milton
- RB: Kaleb Johnson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson
- OUTSIDE WR: DK Metcalf, Demarcus Robinson, Kayshon Boutte, Jalynn Polk
- SLOT WR: Demario Douglas, Javon Baker, Antwane Wells Jr
- TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Elijah Arroyo, Jaheim Bell
- LT: Cam Robinson, Ajani Cornellius
- C/OG: David Andrews, Cole Strange, Will Hernandez, Layden Robinson, Sidey Sow
- RT: Mike Onwenu, Caeden Wallace
DEFENSE:
- DT: Christian Barmore, Javon Kinlaw, Daniel Ekuale, Jeramiah Pharms Jr
- EDGE/DE: Abdul Carter, Chase Young, Keion White, Deatrich Wise, Anfernee Jennings
- LB: Jahlani Tavai, Jawhuan Bentley, Khyzir White, Christian Ellis, Sione Takitaki, Jack Kiser
- OUTSIDE CB: Christian Gonzalez, Stephon Gilmore, Alex Austin
- SLOT CB: Jonathan Jones, Davison Igbinosun,
- FS: Jabril Peppers, Jason Pinnock
- SS: Kyle Dugger, Marte Mapu, Brenden Schooler
K: Eddie Piniero
P: Bryce Barringer
LEAVES 23M IN CAP SPACE
