Since the NFL realigned its division structure in 2002, 29 teams have gone from last in the division to first, and with the regular season wrapped up, we now know the 8 teams who finished last in their respective divisions. Today, this analyst will go through and rank them on which team is most likely to complete the climb to the top of their division next year, so let’s dive in!
8: Las Vegas Raiders
First up is the Las Vegas Raiders, as there are several key factors keeping this Raiders team from vaulting from worst to first in 2025. The first factor is that this team still needs a signal caller to compete with the rest of their division (Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and an emerging Bo Nix).
This could be solved in the 2025 NFL Draft, but it will require them trading up from their current #6 overall selection, as Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, two of the top prospects, are likely to be off the board at their selection. The next QB on my big board is Jalen Milroe, who is more of a late first/early second round selection, so that would be a major reach for them at pick 1.06.
The other issue that’s prevalent is who will the head coach of this team be? Will Antonio Pierce be retained, or will the team look for a new head coach to lead them into the future?
The third big issue was already mentioned, but the division that they are in is a gauntlet, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers all making the playoffs in 2024, it becomes extremely difficult for the Raiders to hope to rise to the top of their division next year.
7: New Orleans Saints
Next on the docket, the New Orleans Saints. Like the raiders previously, they too are in need of a signal caller, as Derek Carr has regressed heavily, and Spencer Rattler has shown why he was a 5th round selection and not quite ready to lead an NFL Franchise.
The other big issue? Cap space. The New Orleans Saints, at the time of this article (01/06) currently sit at 66 million over the cap, before any moves are made. With that being said, this team isn’t competitive in its current state, and will need to restructure several deals on the roster in order to get cap compliant, which means essentially running it back with this roster.
In addition, this team will be looking at a new head coach, as interim coach Darren Rizzi hasn’t shown this analyst enough to take over the job full time, and with the current talent level vs cap concerns, which head coaching prospect will want to lead this team into the future?
The one bright side that they have over the Raiders is that they are in one of the weakest divisions in football, and for them, 10 wins is likely enough to win the division in most years. However, this current roster may struggle to reach half of that next season, pending the coaching staff and what they can get out of their draft selections in 2025.
6: Cleveland Browns
For the Cleveland Browns, they also have cap concerns due to the Deshaun Watson deal, but with his restructure and one or two more other deals, they can easily be cap compliant in 2025. The big concerns for the Browns is that they have no offensive identity, they have no signal caller, and the division they play in is one of the toughest in all of football.
For the Browns to turn it around in 2025, they’ll need to nail their offensive coordinator hire and get the right scheme in place to foster a culture of offensive fire power in the AFC North. They’ll also need to solve their QB Conundrum, whether through Free Agency, through a trade, or through the draft.
However, the Browns are the first team on this list that you could actually start to think has a chance to do it, but a lot has to go right for the team in order to make that a reality in 2025.
5: New York Giants
For the New York Giants, this team is somewhat of a blank slate; 54 million in cap space and the third overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft will help add to the existing talent pool currently in the big apple. The one major question that this giants team will need to solve in 2025 is finding their signal caller of the future.
The division they play in (NFC East) is a little more difficult than the average, but their division rivals, the Washington Commanders, have shown that if you get the pieces in place correctly, you can certainly turn it around (from a #2 overall selection in the NFL Draft to a playoff spot). Getting one of the two top QBs in the NFL Draft will certainly make life easier for them moving forward as well.
4: Chicago Bears
For the Bears, they have arguably the hardest division (NFC North) of any team on this list, so why are they ranked so high? The fact is that this team has talent at multiple positions, including WR, DB, and most of all, QB.
Some folks may not see Caleb as a future franchise QB, but he’s young enough that with the right coaching, he can develop into a star in this league, which brings me to my next point. This Bears team will need to find their right coach to pair with Caleb moving forward, which I made a bold prediction about this coaching opening back in the fall (you can check the article here)
If they do land an offensive mastermind like Ben Johnson as their HC, and add some pieces within the trenches in free agency and in the 2025 Draft, this Bears team could be in contention with the gauntlet that is the NFC North, and have an outside shot and going from worst to first.
3: New England Patriots
For the Patriots, this team is an absolute blank slate for any coach coming in currently. With over 131 million dollars in cap space available in 2025 and a top 4 NFL Draft selection, this team is primed to make a really quick turnaround in 2025.
One thing this team has that the others don’t, aside from cap space, is the fact that Drake Maye looks to be a budding star at the QB position. Combine that with the fact that this team is in an easier division than most (Bills are a tough task, but the Jets and Dolphins are both in states of flux) and their additional cap space, the Patriots have a good chance of flipping the AFC East on its head come 2025, especially if their new head coach Mike Vrabel can right the ship in foxborough.
2: Tennessee Titans
For the Titans, the two biggest factors for them to turn it around? The fact that they play in one of the weakest divisions in football (AFC South) and that they currently possess the #1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft.
In addition, they also possess almost 60 million in cap space for 2025, which will allow them to attack the holes on this team. Like others on this list, Quarterback is an important need, and how this team approaches it (either paying for a Sam Darnold in Free Agency or drafting a Cam Ward/Shedeur Sanders with the first overall selection in the draft) will go a long way in determining whether this Titans team will be able to climb to the top of the AFC South in 2025.
The biggest concern, who makes that top selection for the Titans? With the firing of Ran Carthon, it muddies the water, which is why they fall just shy of #1, behind a team who’s front office and coaching staff is locked in place:
1: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are, without a doubt, the most talented team on this list, and the most likely to make it back to the top of their division in 2025. The biggest concerns are the level of competition in the NFC West as well as how they rebound from the multitude of injuries they suffered this season.
This team is older and more expensive, so in order to ensure they climb back to the top of the standings, hitting on their draft selections in the 2025 Draft cycle will be imperative in order to revamping this team to be able to challenge for the NFC West. Unlike other teams on this list, the 49ers have their quarterback in Brock Purdy, although his contract negotiations will be a point of contention for this team, both in 2025 and beyond.
There you have it folks, my take on who is most likely to jump from “worst to first” in the 2025 NFL Season! If you like what you read, feel free to check out my content over on “X” @sparkscouting, as well as you can also see my podcasts with the draft professor on YouTube here!
